Illusion of certainty

24.4.2020 kl. 18:20 - Sveinbjörn Þórðarson

Lots of good points here.

But in business, let alone in government, it is only in crises that people find a budget for probabilistic interventions...The reason is that both bureaucrats and businesspeople are heavily attracted to the illusion of certainty. Standard cost-cutting ‘efficiencies’ can usually be ‘proven’ to work in advance; more interesting lines of enquiry come with [management] career-threatening unknowability.

One problem with this pretence of certainty is that cost-savings are more easily quantified than potential gains — so business and government are increasingly geared towards providing people with more, poorer things at an ever-lower price. Yet much evidence suggests that people like fewer, better things at a slightly higher price."